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dow still on a crash course with 1929

who's talking here?

SoupIsGoodFood 1
voice of reason 5
AwesomeTattooedDragon 17
SagaciousSighFiGurl 1
WatchOut 2
TinktheSprite 1
sdanielmcev 9
Emperor of Kingwood 10
DVaz 5
a3295767uu 11
Prolix Raconteur 1
fuzz81 11
OrdinaryGuy 5
KwMillennial 5

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AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

Hey, fuzzy! Good morning to you, too! 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

How’s it going? Did your angry tirade against facts MAGA yet? 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

?? No tirade, fuzzy- just answering VOD, (her comment was removed by adm.) It's OK, I understand you're crabby coming out of the ice box. Milk and cookies should do the trick. 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

DOW & SP 500, welcome to the bear den. 

KwMillennial --- 3 years ago -

a32, (and anyone else that cares to comment)

What would you say are the best indicators of when to get back in?

I’ve read that it would be best to sit out the first quarter of 2019. What sez the board? 

Emperor of Kingwood --- 3 years ago -

It depends on what the Fed signals. They've already backed off 2 rate increases in 19. Q1 is time to buy. 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

That is a great question. For someone who is between 20-50 now might be the time to start dollar cost averaging back in. There could be extra selling this week for tax loss reasons.
I see WTI below $35 bbl in 2020. The extra pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin could add 1.0mm + extra bbl per day to the market. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

Lol it’s more complicated than oil prices. That’s a very narrow view of the markets, and the energy sector is the absolute worst performer of 2018. 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

The # 1 indicator I look at daily is the spread between the 2 year & 10 year notes. Once that spread inverts then you need to head to the exits. 100% cash
Current numbers:
2 year note 2.557 %
10 year 2.740 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

The # 1 indicator I look at daily is the spread between the 2 year & 10 year notes. Once that spread inverts then you need to head to the exits. 100% cash
Current numbers:
2 year note 2.557 %
10 year 2.740 

Emperor of Kingwood --- 3 years ago -

I don't think I would move anything into cash markets. That's a guaranteed-1%. If one has to move out of stocks go into tangible assets like real estate and maybe precious metals.

Peer to peer lending has been decent at about a 7 3/4 return so far. I've been dabbling in it for 6 years. 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

Another great indicator are any of the home construction ETFs. I monitor ITB, currently at 52 week low. Down 38% from 52 week high. 

a3295767uu --- 3 years ago -

When I say cash, that includes short term bond ETFs. BSV @ 2.83% yield. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

Virtually everything is at a 52 week low. Thanks trump. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

Hopefully nobody takes financial advice from a32 lol 

Emperor of Kingwood --- 3 years ago -

Gold has been up 3.44% in the last 30 days and 48.9% in 10 years. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

48.9% isn’t great over 10 years, but the short term price of gold is inversely proportional to the stock market. It’s what people do with their money when they lose trust. Thanks trump. 

KwMillennial --- 3 years ago -

Virtually everything is at a 52 week low. Thanks trump. 

Wasn’t the previous President clawing for credit when the market was hitting all time highs a few months ago? Why isn’t it his fault? 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling!" said Chicken Little. "Oh,no", said Ducky Lucky. 

sdanielmcev --- 3 years ago -

Gross domestic income is way up. Main Street is a better indicator than Wall Street. Though NYSE is up about 900 points today. 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

1000. All the smart people buying while it's low! 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

1000. All the smart people buying while it's low! 

KwMillennial --- 3 years ago -

I’m going to wait. Could be a dead cat bounce. 

sdanielmcev --- 3 years ago -

Could be a dead cat bounce. 

Had to look that one up. 

KwMillennial --- 3 years ago -

Overheard a college professor using that term. I had to look it up too. I might have misused it though. Seems like it is used on individual stocks and not as a term for the broader market. 

sdanielmcev --- 3 years ago -

Hopefully that wasn't a physics professor, kw. 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

I would have been OK if the market had stayed down until after th 1st. It would've saved me in taxes. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

Lol no it wouldn’t have. You don’t pay taxes until you sell. More bull from ATD. 

DVaz --- 3 years ago -

Lol no it wouldn’t have. You don’t pay taxes until you sell. More bull from ATD.

Don't you pay if it's part of your income? I'm no expert on the stock market. It's not my thing. 

Emperor of Kingwood --- 3 years ago -

Don't you pay if it's part of your income?

Yes. If you are taking d in distributions from your IRA your paying taxes on that distribution. So, if ATDs distribution was smaller because of the market decline then yes, she would've paid less in taxes. 

Emperor of Kingwood --- 3 years ago -

Don't you pay if it's part of your income?

The profit from the sale of securities is taxd as a capital gain. The percentage is lower if the security was held for more than a year. 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

Thank you, Emp. fuzz the know-it-all, accused me once before, when i said that. I didn't bother answering him, but I appreciate your saving me the trouble. 

DVaz --- 3 years ago -

Thanks for the info, Emp. I never really got into stocks. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

Lol maybe you’re having reading comprehension problems, but emp said it himself: you’re only taxed if you are selling. Also IRAs are different than stocks.

If you just have money sitting in stocks, IRAs, or whatever a market decline has no impact on your taxes unless you’re selling. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

The only real tax advantage that I’m aware of on lower share prices are in specific instances such as options or restricted stocks where taxes are due at vest instead of exercise. 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

I really wish you were right, fuzzy. I didn't enjoy writing that check. (Before you go crazy, I'm talking about last year.) I don't know about this year yet, but If it stays high, I'll prolly owe. 

fuzz81 --- 3 years ago -

You sold shares, and got a 1099 that you had to declare as income, and paid cap gains on it? 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

Morning, fuzzy! How are you, this dreary day? Besides being very nosy? 

SoupIsGoodFood --- 3 years ago -

Have we crashed yet? 

AwesomeTattooedDragon --- 3 years ago -

LOL! I'm sure one of the voices of doom will let you know! 

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